ⓒ The Irish Times
The Dublin South West General Election 2024 is proving to be a dramatic affair, with unexpected results shaking up the political landscape. The Green Party has suffered a significant setback, with Francis Noel Duffy losing his seat. This marks the third Green TD to be eliminated, highlighting a nationwide decline in support for the party. The loss of Duffy, the party’s housing spokesperson and husband of Arts Minister Catherine Martin, adds to the party’s woes, as Martin’s seat, along with those of TDs Brian Leddin and party leader Roderic O’Gorman, also remain precarious.
Early counts revealed a tight race, with no candidate reaching the quota of 11,138 votes. Several independent and smaller party candidates were eliminated early. However, Sinn Féin’s Sean Crowe is currently leading the race, followed closely by Fine Gael’s Colm Brophy and Fianna Fáil’s John Lahart. Lahart expressed satisfaction with his party’s performance, noting a potential 20% vote share, a significant increase from previous elections.
The boundary changes prior to the election caused concern for some parties, particularly Sinn Féin and People Before Profit. Fears of a significant drop in support proved unfounded, however, with both Crowe and Paul Murphy managing to maintain their positions. Crowe expressed confidence in Sinn Fein’s overall performance. Murphy also expressed relief at holding onto his seat despite the boundary changes.
While some candidates who were expected to benefit from the inclusion of Rathfarnham and Templeogue in the constituency performed well, anti-establishment and right-leaning parties failed to gain significant traction. The incumbent-heavy nature of the constituency, coupled with vote splitting, appears to have worked against them. Even former MMA fighter Paddy Holohan, despite local election successes, failed to secure a significant number of votes.
The election continues, with the final results yet to be determined, but it’s clear that the Dublin South West constituency is delivering surprising outcomes. The Green Party’s decline and the unexpectedly strong showing by Sinn Fein are shaping the narrative of this election so far.
